Climate calculations predict vanishing habitats

29 March 2007

Climate scientists are getting hot under the collar. They've predicted that some of the planet's most important habitats could be wiped out in the next hundred years as global warming creates new climates and destroys existing ones.

Antenna investigates...

Image: climateprediction.net

For years scientists have been making predictions about global temperatures rising. But now, for the first time, American researchers have gathered together all the latest information to build up a picture of our changing climate's impact on worldwide habitats.
'We're using the most up-to-date models of climate change and have developed a new way to study this data,' says lead scientist Jack Williams. 'We've looked at many factors, including summer and winter temperatures and rainfall.'

Jack Williams, climate researcher, University of Wisconsin.

Image: University of Wisconsin

The outlook isn't good. Jack says his work suggests that many of the world's coolest climates will vanish within the next century. He also thinks our warmest climates will get hotter than ever before.
'Regions at risk from disappearing climates include the Arctic and tropical mountains such as the South American Andes and East African Rift Mountains,' says Jack. 'The world's warmest places such as the Amazonian and Indonesian rainforests are most likely to develop new climates.'

The Andes Mountains, shown in white on this satellite image, form a natural boundary between two contrasting landscapes. Global warming could make this change.

Image: ESA

The areas in blue on this map show regions with cooler climates that could be lost altogether; the areas in yellow show regions at risk of developing new, warmer climates that currently don't exist anywhere on Earth.

Image: Jack Williams

Jack's team came up with worst- and best-case scenarios of our future carbon emissions to predict the extent of climate change. In the worst case nearly half of the Earth's land surface would experience a disappearing climate. Almost as many places would experience new climates.

Even places that aren't at risk of new or disappearing climates could experience big impacts from global warming.

Image: Jack Williams

Even in the best-case scenario up to 1 in 5 land areas would experience new or disappearing climates. Most of the threatened regions are wildlife hot spots, putting many species at risk.
This is bad news for plants and animals that rely on specific habitats. Ecologist Stephen Jackson predicts that some climates will change enough to make familiar landscapes, vegetation and animal life disappear.
'For example, these projected climate changes would be enough to convert oak forest to grassland or tropical dry forests to savanna. With disappearing climates we stand to lose many tropical mountain species as well as plants and animals from unique regions in South Africa, Colombia and southeast Asia.'

Stephen Jackson, ecologist, University of Wyoming.

Image: Stephen Jackson

It's hard for scientists to know exactly what will happen to wildlife where new climates emerge. 'New climates will create environments that we don't have anywhere on the planet today, so it's difficult to predict what kind of ecosystems will arise there,' explains Stephen. 'Some species may do better, but others will definitely be worse off.'

Deserts have some of the hottest climates on Earth. Scientists don't know what will happen to desert habitats if their temperatures increase.

Image: Stock.XCHNG/ Tijmen van dobbenburgh

Conservationist Chris Thomas thinks people may be surprised by how much climate change could alter our environment. He hopes these new findings will highlight the extent of the problem.
'This reminds us how unpredictable the biological impacts of climate change are. It's not simply a matter of existing climates being shuffled around a bit - we'll be seeing entirely new environments emerge.'

Chris Thomas, conservationist, University of York.

Image: University of York

'I hope our findings will bring home to people how much climate change could impact on their lives,' says Jack. 'We all need to do our part to combat climate change. There aren't any quick fixes - it's something we have to keep working on for decades to come.'
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